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Industry5 min read

The mid-tier won. Most builder cost models are still pricing for the frontier.

GPT-4-class inference has dropped roughly 95% in API cost since 2023. Mistral Medium 3.5 at $1.50/M and DeepSeek V4 under $1/M are genuinely competitive with 2024 frontier models on most production workloads. The decision is no longer 'can we afford AI.' It's 'are we routing traffic to the right tier.'

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Industry5 min read

Meta cut 8,000 people in its most profitable quarter ever. The trade is now on the record.

Meta began laying off 8,000 workers in May 2026 — roughly 10% of its workforce — while reporting Q1 revenue of $56.31 billion and raising its 2026 AI capex guidance to $125-145 billion. Zuckerberg said explicitly that compute and headcount are the two cost levers and that compute is winning. The industry has been implying this trade for two years. Now a major company has said it out loud.

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Industry6 min read

DeepMind's Contextual AI deal isn't a merger. It's a template.

On May 19, Google DeepMind hired 20+ Contextual AI researchers — including CEO Douwe Kiela — under an $80 to $90 million talent-and-licensing deal that left the startup independent. It's the third time in two years Google has used this structure. The antitrust-avoidance playbook is now an industry template, and it's worth understanding what that means before you build a company around a capability a frontier lab might want.

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Industry9 min read

The 10x engineer is back. And the gap is wider than it's ever been.

The 'all engineers will be 10x with AI' framing got the direction right and the magnitude completely wrong. AI tools amplify what you already are. Strong engineers compound. Weak engineers fall further behind. Here's the data and the moves.

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Industry7 min read

Is AI taking your job? The honest answer is more specific than the headlines.

AI accounted for 26% of April's job cuts in the US. 77,999 tech job losses were AI-linked over the prior six months. The numbers are real. The 'AI is taking all the jobs' framing is wrong. Here's what's actually happening, and what to do about it if you'd rather be augmented than replaced.

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Industry9 min read

Reasoning models got commoditized in 90 days. The buyer's market just got brutal.

Reasoning models — the ones that 'think' before they answer — went from rare premium offering to commodity feature in a single quarter. Price-per-million dropped 6x. Quality differences on common tasks shrank to under 4 points on most benchmarks. The interesting decision is no longer which model is best — it's which one fits your shape.

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